Measures of incoherence : How not to gamble if you must
نویسنده
چکیده
The degree of incoherence, when previsions are not made in accordance with a probability measure, is measured by the rate at which an incoherent bookie can be made a sure loser. We consider each bet from three points of view: that of the gambler, that of the bookie, and a neutral viewpoint. From each viewpoint, we de ne an normalization for each bet, and the sure loss for incoherent previsions is divided by the normalization to determine the rate of incoherence. Several di erent de nitions of normalization are considered in order to determine plausible ranges for the degree of incoherence. We give examples of the measurement of incoherence of of some classical statistical procedures.
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